Countdown to Rally Japan

After a two-year absence, Japan returns to the World Rally Championship calendar for the first time since 2008. After several years based in the smaller city of Obihiro, the last running of Rally Japan took place in the metropolis of Sapporo - which hosted the winter Olympics in 1972 as well as the football World Cup in 2002.

So it’s not a place that is lacking in sporting heritage. When it comes to motorsport, few countries greet the arrival of the World Rally Championship with such unrestrained enthusiasm. The drivers are treated like rock stars, with some Japanese fans going so far as to camp out in hotel foyers, in the hope of door-stepping their heroes.

Despite the move of rally headquarters, the stages are still similar to how they were when the rally was in Obihiro. Japan is a curiously specific event: no other stages anywhere else in the world are in any way similar. The Japanese roads tend to be narrow with soft surfaces, but despite this they are extremely quick. This is partly down to several long straights, which frequently lead to tight 90-degree corners. Getting the braking right is an essential skill in Japan, especially because the braking areas are often slippery with plenty of loose stones.

The soft gravel, which tends to form deep ruts on the second run through the stages, is one reason why. Another important variable is the weather, which is often wet and cold. Temperatures fluctuate between 10 and 20 degrees Centigrade, frequently reminding people that Hokkaido is a well-known skiing area on the same latitude as Siberia. One of the keys to getting a good result is having a decent set of pace notes. Just like Finland, precision and commitment is the name of the game.

While damp gravel is the defining characteristic of the surfaces, the rally kicks off with an all-asphalt indoor superspecial in Sapporo, which unusually forms the venue for the shakedown stage as well. The superspecial stage is one that the crews visit frequently: in total it is run eight times!

That rather sums Rally Japan: it’s hard for the drivers to get into any sort of rhythm on the event as it consists of several short, sharp stages. There are 26 of them in fact, comprising 303 competitive kilometres. Nonetheless, the total route length is 1220 kilometres, meaning that the crews are in for a few long road sections, early starts and late nights.

Rally Japan is one of the last great adventures left on the calendar, involving flat-out stages, white-gloved taxi drivers, sushi on conveyor belts, and incomprehensible road signs. It’s hard to make sense of it all sometimes. But if it were easy, everybody would do it...

Who’s going to win?

Probably Mikko Hirvonen or Jari-Matti Latvala this year. Or could it be Sebastien Ogier? The point is this: it’s unlikely to be Sebastien Loeb, even though the Frenchman won there in 2006.

The Citroen driver is a victory machine but he won’t be too anxious to scalp this one, for several reasons. Firstly because, like Finland, Japan is a rally where for whatever reason Loeb has never felt completely at ease.

Secondly, the Frenchman has vowed to take a cautious approach from here to the end of the year - and with a commanding championship lead of 58 points, who can blame him? Finally - and we suspect most importantly - Loeb wants to clinch the title on home territory, the Rallye de France, next month. With one of the stages even running through the six (shortly to become seven) time world champion’s home town, it could almost have been scripted.

The flip side of this situation is that Loeb has the most to lose in Japan: for everyone else it’s a question of what they can gain. Ford clinched a one-two on the 2008 Rally Japan, and also won with Mikko Hirvonen in 2007. The only question mark is the altitude: being a ski resort Hokkaido is high up, and these conditions haven’t favoured Ford in the past this year.

So now we move onto the two wilder cards. Sebastien Ogier finds himself in a tricky position: on the one hand he is the closest of Loeb’s pursuers so has every reason to go for it. On the other hand, he doesn’t know the event at all and he is also once again nominated to score points for the factory Citroen team. So the pressure is on.

Not that this held Ogier back in Finland at all, which he contested under similar circumstances and then beat Loeb. But, as amazing as Ogier has been this year, it’s another Citroen that is likely to hog the limelight.

Petter Solberg is a cult hero in Japan, thanks perhaps to his many successful years with Subaru. He’s had what is probably his most successful season yet - arguably eclipsing his title-winning year in 2003 - and the Norwegian has consistently shown winning pace. Solberg’s inner drive seems to give him a little extra at crucial moments - and this could be one of them.

Don’t expect too much from Kimi Raikkonen: the terrain is really not suited for a former Grand Prix driver and this is potentially going to be his most tricky rally of the year. But one surprise to look out for could be Matthew Wilson. The young Briton took his best-ever WRC result on the Rally Japan, finishing fourth overall in 2007.

Japan is also a round of the Super 2000 World Rally Championship as well as the Production Car World Rally Championship.